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最近我们利用景气分析的方法,对我国经济现状及发展趋势进行了分析研究,景气分析又称为商业周期分析,其主要原理是利用月度或季度统计序列数据,分析和判断经济发展处于周期性波动的哪个阶段:是扩张阶段还是收缩阶段,是峰点还是谷点;找出景气状况发生变动原因;预测未来经济景气走向和下一个峰或谷出现的时期,验证和评价政策实施的效果等。
Recently, we have used the method of boom analysis to analyze and study the economic status quo and development trend in our country. The boom analysis, also known as business cycle analysis, uses the monthly or quarterly statistical sequence data to analyze and judge the cyclical fluctuations in economic development Which stages: expansion stage or contraction stage, is the peak point or valley point; find out the reasons for the changes in the economic situation; predict the future economic boom and the next peak or valley appeared in the period to verify and evaluate the effectiveness of policy implementation.