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针对当前水泥混凝土路面可靠度设计方法存在的问题,提出了工后可靠度的概念及其思想,以贝叶斯定理为基础推导了水泥混凝土路面工后可靠度的计算公式,并通过算例示范了工后可靠度的计算方法。工后可靠度对道路管理部门制定养护经费计划和养护对策有重要的意义。对于更有实用意义的路面管理系统的构建,进一步提出了动态可靠度的概念,以及基于贝叶斯网络的路面动态可靠度计算方法,对路面管理系统的开发具有参考意义。
Aiming at the existing problems in the design method of reliability of cement concrete pavement, the concept of post-construction reliability and its concept are put forward. Based on the Bayesian theorem, the formula of post-construction reliability of cement concrete pavement is deduced. After calculating the reliability of the method. After-work reliability for the road management department to develop conservation funding plan and conservation strategy is of great significance. For the construction of more practical pavement management system, the concept of dynamic reliability is further proposed, and the calculation method of pavement dynamic reliability based on Bayesian network is proposed, which has reference significance to the development of pavement management system.