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本文搜集了1998年一季度到2008年一季度全国时序数据,对住房消费与收入、利率、失业率、房价等经济基本面因素进行了实证研究。首先用EG两步法证实了房地产市场中特有的“量价齐升”现象,这主要归因于房价的强烈上涨预期改变了居民住房消费行为。随后进一步证实了住房消费与包括收入、利率、房价在内的整个经济基本面之间存在着协整关系,认为目前我国房地产市场整体上还没有出现房地产泡沫。脉冲响应和方差分解的结果表明,在影响住房消费的经济基本面因素中,收入对住房消费的贡献率是越来越大的,而利率和房价的贡献是越来越小的。
This paper collects the national time series data from the first quarter of 1998 to the first quarter of 2008 and conducts an empirical study on the economic fundamentals such as housing consumption and income, interest rates, unemployment rates and housing prices. First of all, using EG two-step method to confirm the unique “volume and price rise ” phenomenon in the real estate market, mainly due to the strong rise in house prices is expected to change the residential housing consumer behavior. Then further confirmed that there is a cointegration relationship between housing consumption and the entire economic fundamentals, including income, interest rates and housing prices, and believes that there is no real estate bubble in the real estate market in our country as a whole. Impulse response and variance decomposition results show that in the economic fundamentals affecting housing consumption, the contribution of income to housing consumption is increasing, and the contribution of interest rates and housing prices is getting smaller and smaller.