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本文构建了一个两部门新凯恩斯DSGE模型,分析了劳动人口下降、环境成本上升、消费模式转型及非国有企业占GDP比重上升这四个结构性变化对中国长期经济增长的影响。根据模型模拟结果,在今后17年中(2014-2030年),我国劳动人口的萎缩会累计降低GDP水平13.5%,环境成本上升对GDP水平的负面影响累计为4.2%,消费倾向由商品向服务的转变会累计降低GDP水平5.1%;而改革因素(定义为非国有企业占GDP比重从目前的70%上升到2030年的85%)则会将GDP水平累计提升6.5%,因此部分对冲其他结构性因素对增长的负面影响。如果假设目前的经济增长潜力为7.5%,则上述结构性因素同时作用的结果是今后17年的年均增长会减速到6.9%。我们的结论是,只要改革有足够力度,在可预见的未来中国是完全可以避免中等收入陷阱的。
This paper constructs a two-part new Keynesian DSGE model and analyzes the impact of the four structural changes on the long-term economic growth in China, including the decline of the working population, the increase of environmental costs, the transformation of consumption patterns and the increase of the proportion of non-state-owned enterprises in GDP. According to the results of the model simulation, in the next 17 years (2014-2030), the shrinkage of China’s labor force will reduce the GDP by 13.5% and the negative impact of rising environmental costs on the GDP by 4.2%. The propensity to consume will shift from goods to services Of the total GDP will be reduced by 5.1%. The reform factor (defined as the non-state-owned enterprise’s share of GDP rising from the current 70% to 85% by 2030) will increase GDP by 6.5% in total, thus partially hedging other structures Negative impact of sexual factors on growth. If we assume that the current economic growth potential is 7.5%, the simultaneous effect of these structural factors is that the average annual growth in the next 17 years will slow down to 6.9%. Our conclusion is that China can completely avoid the middle-income trap for the foreseeable future as long as the reform is sufficiently energetic.