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资本具有逐利性,但现有研究针对中国资本投资回报率现值的估算及其变动趋势的结论并不一致,而且也没能回答中国的资本红利对经济增长的贡献将在何时结束。事实上,从固定资本存量积累路径的特征及其规律入手,利用理论分析和结合生产函数的数理推导都可以证明:可积累的固定资本存量存在条件最大值,并在C-D生产函数和永续存盘法下可以计算出该极值。通过对中国1986—2013年经济数据的实证分析,发现当其他条件不变时,就中国当前生产水平和投资比例下,最大固定资本存量为1119531万亿元,对应的最大产出为94236万亿元(近19万亿美元)。在中国新常态的增长速度下,单纯依赖资本投资的红利效果,积累到该最大资本存量仍可保证中国经济持续增长8—10年的时间。
However, the conclusions of the current research on the present value of the return on capital investment in China and its changing trend are not consistent, and it fails to answer the question as to when the contribution of China’s capital dividend to economic growth will end. In fact, starting from the characteristics and laws of the accumulation path of fixed capital stock, both theoretic analysis and mathematical derivation of production function prove that the accumulative fixed capital stock exists in the maximum condition, and in the CD production function and perpetual survival Under the law can calculate the extreme value. Through the empirical analysis of China’s economic data from 1986 to 2013, we found that the maximum fixed capital stock is 1119531 trillion yuan with the current production level and investment proportion in China when the other conditions remain unchanged. The corresponding maximum output is 94236 trillion yuan Yuan (nearly 19 trillion US dollars). Under the new normal growth rate in China, relying solely on the bonus effect of capital investment and accumulating the maximum capital stock will ensure that China’s economy will continue to grow in the next 8 to 10 years.