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根据冻土路基融沉变形的特点,应用混沌时间序列预测方法,建立了冻土路基融沉预测的非线性动力学模型。介绍了加权一阶局域算法,并给出了非线性混沌模型在冻土路基融沉预测的算法步骤。结合我国青藏铁路某施工路段施工期监测结果分析表明,本模型具有一定的实用性,对工程施工具有一定的指导意义。
According to the characteristics of thawing and thawing of permafrost subgrade, a nonlinear dynamic model for subsidence prediction of permafrost subgrade is established by using chaotic time series prediction method. The weighted first-order local algorithm is introduced and the algorithm steps of predicting the thawing settlement of the nonlinear embankment in the frozen soil are given. Based on the monitoring results of construction period in a construction section of Qinghai-Tibet Railway, this model shows that this model has some practicality and has some guiding significance for construction.