应急预案的有效性是保证预案能够取得理想应急处置效果的关键。本文从基础理论的研究入手,选择灰色系统理论方法作为预案实施效果评价的基本方法,并对灰色聚类、灰色关联方法进行了深入研究,构建了基于灰色理论的应急预案有效性评估模型,为全面、准确、科学地评估应急预案有效性提出了新的思路。开发了矿山事故应急预案评估软件系统。通过实例验证了方法的可行性,所提出的评估方法和开发出的评估系统具备矿山事故应急预案评估工作的应用前景。对于应急预案的进一步完善具有重要意义。 The effectiveness of contingency plans is the key to ensure that the plan can achieve the desired emergency response results. This article starts with the research of basic theory, chooses the gray system theory method as the basic method to evaluate the effect of the plan, and makes an in-depth study on the gray clustering and the gray relational method. The effectiveness evaluation model of the contingency plan based on gray theory is constructed Comprehensively, accurately and scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of contingency plans put forward new ideas. Developed a mine accident emergency plan evaluation software system. The feasibility of the method is validated by an example. The proposed evaluation method and the evaluation system developed have the application prospect of mine accident emergency plan evaluation. It is of great significance to further improve the contingency plan.