论文部分内容阅读
本文在理论分析的基础上,将货币政策传导变量与金融市场发展程度纳入统一框架下,通过BVAR模型和门限回归模型,考察了产业结构调整升级是如何受到信贷规模、利率水平、房地产价格、汇率水平及股票市场发展规模的影响。实证结果表明,产业结构升级对五个变量的反应程度各不相同:实际有效汇率、信贷规模与股票市场发展规模对产业结构升级具有正向影响,其中实际有效汇率和信贷规模影响较为显著,股票市场的影响则较弱;而利率与房地产价格会对产业结构升级产生负向作用。
On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper puts the monetary policy transmission variables and financial market development into a unified framework. Through the BVAR model and the threshold regression model, this paper examines how the industrial restructuring and upgrading is affected by credit scale, interest rates, real estate prices, exchange rates Level and the impact of the stock market development scale. The empirical results show that the industrial structure upgrading has different responses to the five variables: the real effective exchange rate, the credit scale and the stock market development scale have a positive effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure, of which the real effective exchange rate and the credit scale have a significant impact. The stock The impact of the market is weaker; and interest rates and real estate prices will have a negative effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure.