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目的探讨温州市气象因素与手足口病发病的关系,为预测温州市手足口病发病提供依据。方法收集温州市2008—2012年每月气象资料(气压、气温、降雨量、风速和日照时数等)和手足口病发病资料进行相关与回归分析。结果以气压、最高温、降雨量、最大风速和平均风速为自变量代入多元线性回归模型,采用stepwise法进行多因素逐步回归分析显示,平均风速(X1)与手足口病发病例数存在负相关,降雨量(X2)与手足口病发病例数存在正相关。回归方程为Y=6 369.18-5 794.35X1+7.283 X2,回归方程有统计学意义(模型复相关系数=0.727,决定系数R2=0.529,F=32.011,P<0.01)。结论气象因素与手足口病发病关系密切,对于建立手足口病早期气象预警系统具有重要意义。
Objective To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD in Wenzhou, and to provide evidence for the prediction of HFMD in Wenzhou. Methods The monthly meteorological data (air pressure, air temperature, rainfall, wind speed and sunshine hours, etc.) of Wenzhou City in 2008-2012 were collected and analyzed with correlation and regression analysis. Results The multivariate linear regression model was fitted with multivariable linear regression models using air pressure, maximum temperature, rainfall, maximum wind speed and average wind speed as independent variables. The stepwise regression analysis showed that the average wind speed (X1) was negatively correlated with the number of HFMD cases , Rainfall (X2) and hand-foot-mouth disease cases there is a positive correlation. The regression equation was Y = 6 369.18-5 794.35X1 + 7.283 X2. The regression equation was statistically significant (model complex correlation coefficient = 0.727, coefficient of determination R2 = 0.529, F = 32.011, P <0.01). Conclusion The meteorological factors are closely related to the pathogenesis of HFMD, which is of great significance for the establishment of an early warning system for HFMD.