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预计2016年国内小麦市场仍将处于去政策、去库存的过程,仍将面临国内经济新常态下产业结构调整以及消费升级所带来的需求总体增速放缓。由于连年增产,且更多的是以政策性库存数量进一步增加形式体现,国内政策性小麦库存数量高企的情况下,因仓容压力较大,政策对麦价的支撑作用明显弱化,国内麦价整体向下的动力不断增强,尤其是在政策定调粮食市场化的背景下,国内小麦市场贸易面临的政策风险陡然加大,“买方”市场氛围仍将较为浓厚。
It is estimated that the domestic wheat market will still be in the process of going to policy and going to inventory in 2016 and will still face the overall slowdown in demand brought about by the industrial restructuring under the new normal of the domestic economy and the upgrading of consumption. As a result of the year-on-year increase in production and more in the form of a further increase in the number of policy stocks, under the circumstances of a high inventory of domestic policy wheat, the pressure on storage capacity will greatly weaken the supportive effect of policies on wheat prices, and the overall domestic wheat price Downward momentum continues to increase, especially in the policy-oriented food market-oriented background, the domestic wheat market policy is facing a sharp increase in policy risks, “buyer ” market atmosphere will remain relatively strong.