1973年的第四次中东战争,埃叙军队以突然袭击拉开了战幕,这使自称“军事大国”的以色列陷入被动的泥潭,遭受了重大损失。战后,各国军界纷纷评说以军初期失利的原因,认为是由于埃叙军队战前成功地组织了战略欺骗、埃叙军队选择了最为有利的开战时间和以军的情报掌握不准等等。对上述原因我并无悖议。但通过对已有资料的研究,笔者认为,以军战争初期失利的主要原因还在于战略指导的失误。一、过于信赖事实上已经失灵的“遏制战略”,影响了临战准备。 1967年的“六·五”战争结束以后,深信自己战无不胜的以色列确定了“遏制战略”这样一条国家安全政策。所谓遏制,实质是指让对方通过对战争的利害得失作出合理的判断而产生恐惧心理,进而使其不敢发动战争。一般来说,这种目的的实现,首先是以强大的军事实力为后盾的。以色列的遏制战略的基本设想是:在短期内,加强对危险地区的防御,在军事上保持快速反应能力,严密警戒边界,随时击退阿拉伯人的进攻,以这种实力打消阿拉伯国家的进攻念头。同时,不断发展本国的综合国力,保持战争潜力,以军事上的绝对优势迫使阿拉伯人放弃继续战斗的意志。以色列认为,“遏制战略”成立的基本条件有两点:一是埃军渡过苏伊士运河发动进攻时,在其桥头阵地的初期阶段就会被以军的快速反击所粉碎。正象国防部长摩西·达扬所宣称的那样:“任何企图渡过运河的埃及军队都将在24小时内被 In the fourth Middle East war in 1973, the army of Ethiopia opened a surprise war with Israel, plunged into a passive quagmire and suffered heavy losses. After the war, the military circles of various countries have commented on the reasons for the early defeat of the Israeli army because they believed that the Syrian army successfully organized strategic deception before the war, that the Eritrean army chose the most favorable time for war and that the intelligence of the Israeli army was not in control and so on . I have no objection to the above reasons. However, through the research on the existing data, the author believes that the main reason for the defeat in the early stage of the Israeli War lies in the mistakes made by the strategic guidance. First, over-reliance on the “containment strategy” that has in fact failed has affected the preparation for the war. After the “June 5” war in 1967 ended, Israel, confident in its invincibility, set a national security policy such as “containment strategy.” The so-called containment, in essence, refers to letting each other cause fear by making reasonable judgments on the gains and losses of the war, thus making it impossible for them to launch a war. In general, the realization of this purpose is above all backed by a strong military capability. The basic assumption of Israel’s containment strategy is that in the short term, it will strengthen its defensiveness in dangerous areas and maintain a rapid military reaction capability. It should closely guard the border and defeat the Arabs’ attacks at any time so as to dispel the attack on the Arab countries with such strength . At the same time, it will continue to develop its own comprehensive national strength and maintain its potential for war, forcing the Arabs to renounce their will to continue fighting with the military absolute superiority. Israel believes that there are two basic conditions for the establishment of a “containment strategy”: First, when the Egyptian army crossed the Suez Canal to launch an offensive, it would be crushed by the Israeli army’s rapid counterattack at the initial stage of its bridgehead. As Defense Minister Moses Dayan declared: "Any Egyptian army trying to get through the canal will be destroyed within 24 hours