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一、我国外贸顺差及国际比较1994年至今,我国外贸持续顺差,大致可分为以下两个阶段:1.外贸顺差规模持续扩大的阶段(1994年～2008年)。从1994年开始,我国外贸进入持续顺差阶段,由该年度的54亿美元,扩大到2004年的321亿美元;2005年首次突破1000亿美元,达到1020亿美元;2007年超过2000亿美元,达到2643亿美元;2008年进一步扩大到2981亿美元,为迄今为止我国外贸顺差的最高峰值。2.外贸顺差规模逐渐缩小的阶段(2009年～至今)。从2009年开始,我国外贸顺差规模逐步缩小。当年外贸顺差1957亿美元,比2008年锐减了1024亿美元;2010年缩小到1851亿美元,比上年减少107亿美元;2011年进一步缩小到1553亿美元,比上年减少298亿美元。预计2012年,我国顺差规模还将会进一步缩小。
I. China’s Foreign Trade Surplus and International Comparison Since 1994, China’s foreign trade has maintained a sustained surplus, which can be broadly divided into the following two stages: 1. The phase of expanding trade surplus (1994-2008). Starting from 1994, China’s foreign trade entered a period of sustained surplus, expanding from 5.4 billion U.S. dollars in that year to 32.1 billion U.S. dollars in 2004; surpassing 100 billion U.S. dollars at the first time in 2005 to 102 billion U.S. dollars; and over 200 billion U.S. dollars in 2007 2643 billion U.S. dollars. In 2008, it further expanded to 298.1 billion U.S. dollars, the highest peak in the foreign trade surplus to date. 2. The scale of the foreign trade surplus has gradually narrowed (from 2009 to now). Since 2009, China’s trade surplus has been gradually reduced. The foreign trade surplus was 195.7 billion U.S. dollars, a sharp decrease of 102.4 billion U.S. dollars over 2008; it was reduced to 185.1 billion U.S. dollars in 2010, a decrease of 10.7 billion U.S. dollars over the previous year; and further reduced to 155.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2011, a decrease of 29.8 billion U.S. dollars over the previous year. It is estimated that in 2012, the scale of China’s surplus will be further narrowed.