论文部分内容阅读
通过引入灾害链理论对城市及石化系统因破坏性地震作用而引发的次生灾害进行研究。基于灾害链理论分析地震灾害链的成灾机理,建立基于主要影响因素的地震灾害链物理模型,通过对灾害要素间内在联系初步构建定量分析的概率评估模型;经算例分析评估给出次生灾害的发生概率,找出地震灾害链中各灾害要素间的关键环节,提出针对性的断链措施建议;最后,给出基于地震灾害链原理的断链减灾方法的一般步骤。研究成果为震前的次生灾害预防、震后采取有效的应急措施提供新的评估方法。
Disaster chain theory is introduced to study secondary disasters caused by devastating earthquake in urban and petrochemical systems. Based on the disaster chain theory, the disaster mechanism of the earthquake disaster chain was analyzed, the physical disaster chain model based on the main influencing factors was established, and the probabilistic assessment model of quantitative analysis was established through the intrinsic connection between disaster elements. The probability of occurrence of disasters, find out the key links between the various disaster elements in the earthquake disaster chain, and put forward some suggestions on the measures of breaking the chain. Finally, we give the general steps of the chain breaking disaster reduction method based on the principle of earthquake disasters chain. The research results are the prevention of secondary disasters before earthquakes and the adoption of effective emergency measures after earthquakes to provide a new assessment method.