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欧佩克内部鹰派和鸽派之争由来已久,引发两派斗争内部原因主要有两派基本国情差异和欧佩克自身组织缺陷;外部原因主要包括国际石油市场及外交关系变化等方面。不同时期鹰派与鸽派国家制定相关政策的主导因素不尽相同,但大都呈现出相互对立的状态。这种派系之争对国际能源市场、石油输出国、欧佩克组织自身、中东地区局势、能源地缘政治等方面的影响不容小觑。从当前鹰鸽两派国家的关系看,欧佩克内部派系之争的未来走势存在三种可能:走向缓和、保持现状及走向决裂。
The confrontation between the OPEC’s hawks and doves has been going on for so long. The two main causes of the internal conflicts between the two groups are the fundamental differences in national conditions and OPEC’s own organizational defects. The external causes mainly include the changes in the international oil market and diplomatic relations. The dominant factors in the formulation of relevant policies by hawks and dovish states in different periods are different, but most of them show the opposite state. The factional dispute on the international energy market, oil-exporting countries, OPEC itself, the situation in the Middle East, the geopolitical aspects of energy impact should not be underestimated. From the perspective of the current relationship between the two countries, there are three possibilities for the future trend of OPEC factional disputes: easing toward maintaining the status quo and breaking up.