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通过对居民金融资产结构的变迁进行分析,论证了居民储蓄在准货币增长中所具有的重要位置。在不确定性、流动性约束和预防性储蓄理论假设的基础上,从我国经济改革以来的经验事实出发,验证了我国城乡居民在经济行为过程中存在流动性约束和预防性储蓄的事实,并在理论上对居民储蓄推动准货币快速增长的机制给予了证明。对我国城镇居民和农村居民消费行为的检验证实了不确定性和流动性约束的存在能够刺激居民预防性储蓄动机的增加,导致准货币增长,并最终推动超额货币供给的产生。
Through the analysis of the changes in the structure of residents ’financial assets, it proves that residents’ savings have an important place in the growth of quasi-money. Based on the assumptions of uncertainty, liquidity constraints and precautionary savings theory, this paper verifies the fact that urban and rural residents have liquidity constraints and precautionary savings in the course of economic activities from the empirical facts in China’s economic reform. In theory, it proves that the mechanism of household savings promoting the rapid growth of quasi-money. Examination of the consumption behavior of urban residents and rural residents in our country confirms that the existence of uncertainty and liquidity constraints can stimulate residents’ motivation for preventive saving to increase, resulting in the growth of quasi-money and ultimately promoting the generation of excess money supply.