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目的讨论脑卒中发病人数的月际和年际变化规律及气象因素的关系,建立逐月旬发病气象预测模型。方法利用2000—2008年乌鲁木齐市脑卒中逐月发病人数病例资料和同期地面气象A文件资料,选择气温、气压、日照时数、总云量、相对湿度、平均风速进行逐步回归分析,加之天气过程与多发病人数进行对比分析。结果脑卒中发病人数逐年呈现上升态势,高峰期出现在1月;多发病人数主要涉及到强降温、东南大风天气过程;发病人数与气温、日照时数呈显著负相关,与气压和风速呈显著正相关,脑卒中发病预测模型:Y月=71.56-0.19P+0.41P1+0.32T-1.41C-0.04S1。结论利用月旬预测模型F检验,趋势拟合准确率为71%和63%,表明此模型是可行的,有一定的预测能力。
Objective To discuss the monthly and interannual variability of the incidence of stroke and the relationship between meteorological factors and establish a weather forecasting model of lunar onset. Methods The monthly incidence data of stroke in 2000-2008 and the ground-based meteorological A-files were used to select the temperature, air pressure, sunshine duration, total cloud cover, relative humidity and average wind speed for stepwise regression analysis. In addition, And the number of patients with multiple comparative analysis. Results The incidence of stroke increased year by year and peaked in January. The number of multiple attacks mainly involved the process of strong cooling and southeaster windy weather. There was a significant negative correlation between the number of patients and air temperature and sunshine duration, and significant correlation with air pressure and wind speed Positive correlation, stroke prediction model: Y month = 71.56-0.19P + 0.41P1 + 0.32T-1.41C-0.04S1. Conclusion The accuracy of the trend fitting is 71% and 63%, respectively, based on the F-test of the lunar forecast model, which shows that this model is feasible and has certain predictive ability.