2000年的世界经济有五个教训。第一个教训是经济周期确实存在着。2000年出现了大量的过剩问题,尤其是那些属于模式改变的过剩现象,它们存在于所谓的新经济的核心中,第二个教训是对于一种经济模式的偏执对投资者和经济的健康是危险的,回顾起来,人们执迷于新经济造成了严重的过剩现象,这为新经济自身的灭亡埋下了种子。与第三个教训相关的是通货膨胀,以及宏观经济学家用以理解通货膨胀的决定因素及其后果的分析框架。通货膨胀的作用可能正在发生显著的变化,从推高利率日益转向决定收益状况.第四个教训反映了决策的艺术。决策者总是在寻求正确的决策,但是常常犯错误。最后一个教训是美国在全球经济和世界金融市场中惊人的支配地位,世界经济仍然过度依赖于美国。2000年是痛苦的,但又是有益的,它清除了新的宏观经济学支配的世界中的许多过度因素,我们把它称作旧宏观经济学的再生.——Stephen Roach T The world economy in 2000 has five lessons. The first lesson is that the business cycle does exist. There was a great deal of over-supply in 2000, especially those that belonged to the paradox of modalities that existed at the heart of the so-called new economy. The second lesson was that the paranoia of an economic model is both investors and the economy’s health. In retrospect, people are obsessed with the new economy and cause serious over-excesses, which have laid seeds for the new economy’s own demise. Related to the third lesson are inflation and the analytical framework that macroeconomists use to understand the determinants of inflation and their consequences. The role of inflation may be undergoing significant changes, shifting from raising interest rates to deciding on the state of returns. The fourth lesson reflects the art of decision-making. Policy makers are always seeking the right decisions, but often make mistakes. The last lesson is the astonishing dominance of the United States in the global economy and the world financial markets. The world economy is still overly dependent on the United States. The year 2000 is painful, but rewarding, it removes many of the over-dimensions of the world dominated by the new macroeconomics, which we call the rejuvenation of old macroeconomics .-- Stephen Roach T