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劳动力成本上升带来的失业增加和企业盈利下降是中国当前经济转型和结构调整中亟待解决的重大现实问题,也为盈余管理研究提供了新的视角。考察劳动力成本上升对企业盈余管理行为的影响,并结合中国政府失业治理的制度背景分析其影响机理,可以拓展关于劳动力成本上升经济后果的研究,还可为研究盈余管理的新动机和新特征提供新兴市场国家的经验证据。利用2003年至2013年中国A股上市公司样本,以职工平均工资作为劳动力成本的衡量指标,利用修正的Jones模型对盈余管理水平进行估计,并分别采用普通最小二乘法、面板固定效应回归和两阶段最小二乘回归检验劳动力成本上升对企业盈余管理行为的影响。同时,采用一系列稳健性检验以保证研究结论的可靠性。为了刻画劳动力成本上升背景下政府失业治理与企业财务政策选择交互作用的完整过程逻辑,对因果关系的机制进行系统的探索。研究结果表明,劳动力成本上升时,企业更倾向选择负向盈余管理隐瞒利润或报告亏损,这种影响在国有企业、劳动密集型企业、高失业率地区的企业中更为显著。进一步研究发现,劳动力成本上升导致就业减少和失业增加,在政府承担失业治理任务的背景下,企业通过负向盈余管理可以获得更多政府就业补贴、税收优惠或减少政府转移的就业负担,这在一定程度上弱化了政府失业治理的政策效应。研究结果对于改革政府失业治理模式、规范企业盈余管理行为、完善政府补贴政策、提高政府公共资源配置效率具有重要意义。建议改革行政干预导向下的政府失业治理模式,改变政府就业补助资金的投向和分配方式,优化政府补贴和税收优惠政策,充分发挥市场机制在公共资源配置中的决定性作用,从而缓解地方政府行为对于企业财务会计政策的扭曲。
Unemployment and rising corporate profits caused by rising labor costs are major realistic issues to be solved in the current economic restructuring and structural adjustment in China and provide a new perspective for the study of earnings management. To investigate the impact of rising labor costs on corporate earnings management behavior and to analyze its impact mechanism based on the institutional background of Chinese government unemployment management can expand the study on the economic consequences of rising labor costs and provide new motivation and new features for the study of earnings management Evidence from Emerging Market Countries. Based on the sample of A-share listed companies in China from 2003 to 2013, the average salary of employees was taken as the measure of labor cost, and the revised Jones model was used to estimate the level of earnings management. Ordinary least squares method, panel fixed effect regression and two Stage Least Squares Regression Tests the Impact of Labor Cost Rising on Firm Earnings Management. At the same time, a series of robustness tests are adopted to ensure the reliability of the conclusions of the study. In order to depict the complete process logic of the interaction between government unemployment control and enterprise financial policy selection under the background of rising labor costs, the causal mechanism is systematically explored. The results show that when labor costs rise, firms prefer to choose negative earnings management to conceal profits or report losses. Such effects are more pronounced in state-owned enterprises, labor-intensive enterprises and enterprises with high unemployment rate. Further study found that rising labor costs led to the reduction of employment and unemployment. Under the background that the government undertakes the task of unemployment management, enterprises can obtain more government employment subsidies, tax incentives or reduce the employment burden of government transfer through negative earnings management To some extent weakened the policy effect of the government’s unemployment control. The results of this study are of great significance to the reform of the government unemployment management model, the regulation of corporate earnings management practices, the improvement of government subsidy policies and the improvement of government public resource allocation efficiency. It is suggested to reform the government unemployment management model under the guidance of administrative intervention, to change the way and allocation of government employment subsidy funds, to optimize government subsidies and preferential tax policies, and to give full play to the decisive role of market mechanisms in the allocation of public resources so as to ease the behaviors of local governments Distortion of corporate financial accounting policy.