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我国经济经过连续35年的高速增长后,未来我国经济发展前景如何?在参照日韩台的经济发展历程情况下,本文认为决定一国经济发展潜力的是该国人均收入与世界平均收入的相对水平,只有当一国人均收入达到世界平均收入的2倍以后该国经济高速发展的潜力才会结束。当前我国人均收入仅为世界平均水平的60%,在城市化进程不断推进、非农劳动力的数量质量不断提高、产业自东向西不断转移、经济改革红利不断释放以及科技创新能力不断提升的情况下,今后10年甚至20年我国经济依然可以取得年均7%以上的高增长。
In the light of the economic development of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the author believes that the potential of determining the economic development of a country is the relative per capita income of the country with the average income of the world after the rapid economic growth of our country for 35 consecutive years. Only when the per capita income of a country reaches twice the average income of the world will the economy’s economic growth come to an end. At present, China’s per capita income is only 60% of the world average. With the progress of urbanization, the continuous improvement of the quantity and quality of non-agricultural labor force, the continuous transfer of industries from east to west, the continuous release of dividends on economic reform and the continuous improvement of scientific and technological innovation capability Under the next 10 or even 20 years, China’s economy can still achieve high growth of more than 7% annually.