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八十年代上半期,西方国家很难摆脱“滞胀”困境,苏联和多数东欧国家的关键问题是经济计划和管理的现有模式僵化,第三世界国家依然面临发展道路问题。三类国家的经济增长速度都将放慢。世界经济可能维持1973年以来的局面,不致爆发大危机,也不象要出现新的高涨。国际经济关系仍将趋于紧张。石油价格和供应的不稳定仍是头号问题。国际金融难免继续动荡。南北关系难以缓和。苏联实力地位无法显著加强,将增加其发动大战的困难,但也须警惕它在有机可乘时进行扩张。美国难以扭转经济衰落趋势,将被迫继续处于战略守势。欧、日将作为独立于美国的政治力量而发挥更大作用。第三世界有些地区将继续动荡。国际局势将比七十年代更加紧张。
In the first half of the 1980s, it was difficult for western countries to get out of the “stagflation” predicament. The key issue in the Soviet Union and in most of Eastern European countries was the rigidification of the existing model of economic planning and management and the third world countries still faced the issue of development road. The economic growth of all three types of countries will slow down. It is possible that the world economy will maintain the situation since 1973 without causing a major crisis or emerging new heights. International economic relations will continue to be tense. The oil price and supply instability remain top issues. International finance will inevitably continue to turmoil. North-South relations is difficult to ease. The fact that the Soviet Union’s strength can not be significantly strengthened will increase its difficulty in waging war, but it must also be wary of its expansion when it can take advantage. It is hard for the United States to reverse the trend of economic decline and will be forced to continue to be in a strategic defensive position. Europe and Japan will play a bigger role as political forces independent of the United States. Some parts of the third world will continue to be turmoil. The international situation will be more tense than in the 1970s.