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目前国内外还没有对不同火险条件下草原火险时空发生概率的研究,而这方面研究对草原火灾管理对策和防火救助应急预案的制定具有重要意义。根据呼伦贝尔草原火灾统计月报表和相关气象、社会经济资料,利用Logistic回归模型建立草原火险预测模型,对草原火险进行了空间上的预测。结果表明,日平均风速、日降水量对草原火险影响较大。以2005年所有火灾案例对草原火险预测模型进行检验,研究表明,该预测方法具有较高的可靠性,可为火灾管理和减灾决策的制定提供指导。
At present, there is no research on the probability of space-time occurrence of grassland fire hazard under different conditions of fire danger. However, research on this aspect is of great significance to the management of grassland fire and the formulation of contingency plans for fire protection. According to the Hulunbuir grassland fire statistics monthly report and relevant meteorological and socio-economic data, a Logistic regression model was used to establish the grassland fire risk prediction model, and the spatial prediction of grassland fire risk was made. The results show that daily average wind speed and daily precipitation have a great impact on grassland fire hazard. The fire risk prediction model of grassland was tested with all the fire cases in 2005. The research shows that the prediction method has high reliability and can provide guidance for the formulation of fire management and disaster reduction decision-making.