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在过去几十年里,石油价格一直处于波动状态,政府分析家不得不一再分析和计算油价变化将如何影响石油消费量。以美国为例,如果国民消费更多石油,国家就需要增加石油进口数量,而这将影响美国的进出口贸易平衡。我们接着看一个例子:假设石油消费的需求弹性等于0 7,而且未来两年内石油价格上升10%,那么石油消费量可能出现怎样的变化?我们知道,需求弹性等于0,7意味着价格每上升1%,需求就会下降0.7%,于是当价格上升10%,需求就应该下降7%,如果目前石油消费量是1亿桶,两年后这个数字就会减少7百万桶,变成只有9千3百万桶。那么总消费支出额又有什么变化呢?如果目前价格是每桶20美元,1亿桶的总值就等于20亿美元。两年后,由于价格上升10%,变成每桶22美元,9千3百万桶石油的价格就是20亿4千
Over the past few decades, oil prices have been volatile and government analysts have had to repeatedly analyze and calculate how oil price changes will affect oil consumption. In the United States, for example, if the nation consumes more oil, the country needs to increase its oil imports, which will affect the U.S. import-export trade balance. Let’s look at an example: What is the possible change in oil consumption assuming that the demand elasticity of oil consumption is equal to 0 7 and the price of oil rises 10% in the next two years? We know that a demand elasticity equal to 0,7 means that every price increase 1% demand will drop by 0.7%, so when the price rises 10%, the demand should drop 7%. If the current oil consumption is 100 million barrels, this figure will be reduced by 7 million barrels in two years, becoming only Nine thousand and three million barrels. Then what is the change in the total expenditure on consumption? If the current price is 20 US dollars a barrel, the total value of 100 million barrels equals 2 billion US dollars. Two years later, the price of 93 million barrels of oil was 2 billion 4 thousand dollars as the price rose 10% to 22 dollars a barrel