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本文在项目管理的选择法和学习法的组合模式的基础上,提出同时采用多方案并行和强化学习两种管理策略能有效应对NPD项目的复杂性。在如何决定并行数量和学习强度的问题上,基于效率准则进行了理论分析,提出了主要的权变变量,即复杂性和成本。并基于NK模型进行了仿真模拟,探讨了不同情境下,项目绩效随两种管理策略的变化规律。
Based on the combination of project management selection method and learning method, this paper proposes that the combination of multi-program parallelism and reinforcement learning can effectively deal with the complexity of NPD projects. On the issue of how to decide the amount of parallelism and the strength of learning, this paper makes theoretical analysis based on the efficiency criterion and puts forward the main contingency variables, namely complexity and cost. Then the simulation based on NK model is carried out to investigate the variation of project performance with the two management strategies in different situations.