建立航线经济模型,论证了除船舶自身成本(包括船舶资本成本、营运成本、燃料成本等)外,港口间运量不确定性也会引起船舶规模经济.结果表明:在港口运量匀质化假设下,一条航线的船舶挂靠的港口越多,货源不足的风险就越分散,航线收益率就越高;当港口运量非匀质化时,港口运量差异较大,小港口货源较稳定或大港口货源较不稳定,三者将会对船舶规模经济起反作用. The establishment of a route economy model proves that the uncertainties of the inter-seaport traffic will also lead to the economies of scale of the ship, except for the cost of the ship itself (including the cost of capital of the ship, operating costs, fuel costs, etc.). The results show that: Under the assumption, the more ports the one vessel lays, the more the risks of insufficient supply are scattered and the higher the return rate of the routes. When the traffic volume is not homogenized, the traffic volume of ports is quite different, and the supply of small ports is relatively stable Or large port supply is not stable, the three will be counter-productive economies of scale.