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今天的无线通信离“无论何时、无论何地”,“无处不在”的目标还有不少距离,但调查数据和分析资料显示,无线通信市场虽正缓缓地增长,然而前景十分灿烂。 据YankeeGroup预计,到1997年,蜂窝/PCS将拥有3900万用户;寻呼业务将有3400万用户;便携式计算机将有2000万用户。到2000年,蜂窝/PCS用户将达到6200万;寻呼业务将达到5500万;便携式计算机的用户将达到3800万。到那时,寻呼和蜂窝话音业务将占整个无线市场的25％。目前,寻呼和蜂窝业务正处于市场发展的高峰,便携式计算机和移动无线数据业务的发展将会更迟一些。
Today’s wireless communications are far from the “no matter where” and “ubiquitous” targets. However, the survey data and analysis show that the wireless communications market is slowly growing but the outlook is bright . According to YankeeGroup, cellular / PCS will have 39 million subscribers by 1997; paging business will have 34 million subscribers; and laptops will have 20 million subscribers. By 2000, cellular / PCS users will reach 62 million; paging business will reach 55 million; laptop users will reach 38 million. By that time, paging and cellular voice services will account for 25% of the entire wireless market. At present, paging and cellular services are at the peak of market growth, and the development of portable computers and mobile wireless data services will be delayed later.