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本文基于中国27个省份1978-2012年35年的面板数据,使用面板门限模型分析了中国最终消费率与经济增长率之间的非线性关系,并且测度了消费率的拐点数值。实证结果表明,我国消费率与经济增长率之间存在单一门限效果,其门限值为59.85%,门限值两边影响系数分别为正相关、负相关,即我国最终消费率与经济增长率之间呈现倒V型关系。
Based on the panel data from 1978 to 2012 in 27 provinces in China, the panel threshold model is used to analyze the nonlinear relationship between the final consumption rate and the economic growth rate in China and the inflection point value of the consumption rate is measured. The empirical results show that there is a single threshold effect between consumption rate and economic growth rate in our country, with a threshold value of 59.85%. The influence coefficients on both sides of the threshold are positive correlation and negative correlation respectively, that is, the final consumption rate and economic growth rate in China Between the inverted V-shaped relationship.