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尽管缺少可信的确定性地震前兆,但地震学家通过对地震丛集属性日渐精确的理解,已经获得了地震活动的重要的预测信息。在过去的15年间和较大的地震序列期间,公众可以近实时地得到基于一般短期丛集模型并与时间有关的地震概率。这些预报描述一个给定震级主震之后可能发生地震事件的平均概率和数目,但并不适合于当前特定的序列和不包含可能的余震位置信息。我们的模型在两方面依赖于一般的预测模型的基本原则:它以强地面震动概率表述预测,并将一个现有的基于断层数据和历史地震并与时间无关的发震模型,和描述与时间有关的区域地震丛集的渐增的复杂模型结合起来,得到一个在加州任何地方未来24小时强震动概率随时间变化的地图。我们的地震危险性建模方法可以帮助大家较好地理解随时间变化的地震危险性,并增加它对公众、应急决策者和媒体的实用性。
Despite the lack of credible and deterministic seismic precursors, seismologists have gained important predictions of seismicity by increasingly accurate understanding of the attributes of seismic clusters. During the past 15 years and during larger earthquake sequences, the public can obtain the time-dependent seismic probabilities based on a general short-term cluster model in near real time. These forecasts describe the average probability and number of seismic events that may occur after a given magnitude mainshock but are not suitable for the current specific sequence and do not include possible aftershock location information. Our model relies on the basic principle of a general prediction model in two ways: it expresses predictions with strong ground-shaking probabilities and an existing seismogenic model based on fault data and historical earthquakes that are independent of time, The increasingly complex models of regional earthquake clusters are combined to produce a map of strong vibration probabilities over time over the next 24 hours anywhere in California. Our method of earthquake hazard modeling can help you better understand the seismic hazard over time and increase its utility to the public, emergency decision makers and the media.