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县级林业生产,是一个因素众多、因素间关系复杂的系统。本文以永丰县为例,应用系统动力学的理论和方法,调查分析其林业生产系统内各主要组成因素间的相互关系,建立 S.D.动态模型,进行计算机仿真模拟实验。据此,对永丰县林业生产作出状态分析和主要经济指标发展趋势预测,分析影响这些发展趋势的政策措施。
County-level forestry production is a system with many factors and complicated relations among factors. Taking Yongfeng County as an example, this paper applies the theories and methods of system dynamics to investigate and analyze the interrelationships among the major components in the forest production system. The dynamic model of S.D. is established and the computer simulation is carried out. Based on this, the state of forestry production in Yongfeng County is analyzed and the development trend of major economic indicators is predicted, and the policy measures affecting these trends are analyzed.