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主要观点: 1、近年中国的电力消费弹性系数趋于增长,未来仍保持在1.2以上,用电增长将继续超过GDP增长速度;人均净用电 量为999.6千瓦时,不到发达国家用电水平的1/10.2004年到:2006年人均用电量预计将以11％以上的速度增长,人均生活 用电量以及社会用电量将呈现增长趋势;社会用电结构将发生变化,工业用电仍将为我国电力消费的主体,但是比重将逐 步下降,居民生活用电和第三产业用电比重将逐步提高; 2、国内电力需求旺盛,我国发电装机量与电力需求之间存在一定的矛盾,2003年实际装机只有2200万千瓦左右,与 约需新增4500万千瓦的装机容量相差比较大,只能满足大约50％的新增需求,而且发电装机容量远低于经济增长的预期, 所以目前以及未来两年内供需缺口依然较大;2005年电力供需有所缓解,电力供需平衡总体偏紧,2006年电力供需总体上 能够达到略微平衡; 4、水电行业面临着难得的发展机遇。优先发展水电正是国家环保中的一个重要举措;竞价上网将凸显水电低成本优势; 水电站的运行成本较火电站低50-70%,上述优势将会极大地促进水电业的发展。所以长江电力作为国内最大的水力发电 企业发展前景非常乐观; 5、葛洲坝电力价格是否上调仍然具有很大的不确定性,这个对长江电力未来的业绩构成不确定因素,但是各方情况显
Main points of view: 1. In recent years, the elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption in China tends to increase and will remain above 1.2 in the future. The growth of electricity consumption will continue to exceed the growth rate of GDP. The net electricity consumption per capita is 999.6 kWh, less than the level of electricity consumption in developed countries 1 / 10. From 2004 to 2006: per capita electricity consumption is expected to grow at a rate of over 11% in 2006, and the per capita living electricity consumption and social electricity consumption will show an increasing trend; the structure of social electricity consumption will change; and the industrial electricity consumption Will be the main body of China’s electricity consumption, but the proportion will gradually decline, residential electricity consumption and tertiary industry will gradually increase the proportion of electricity; 2, strong domestic demand for electricity, China’s installed capacity and demand for electricity there are some contradictions, In 2003, the actual installed capacity was only about 22 million kilowatts, which is quite different from the installed capacity of about 45 million kilowatts added, which can only meet about 50% of the newly increased demand. Moreover, the installed capacity of power generation is far below the expectation of economic growth, As well as the gap between supply and demand in the next two years will still be relatively large. In 2005, the supply and demand of electricity will be eased and the overall balance between electricity supply and demand will be tight. As a whole, supply and demand of electricity will reach a slight balance in 2006; Hydropower industry is facing a rare opportunity for development. Priority is given to the development of hydropower in the national environmental protection is an important measure; bidding will highlight the advantages of hydropower low-cost; hydropower station operating costs 50-70% lower than thermal power plants, the above advantages will greatly promote the hydropower industry. Therefore, the development prospect of the Yangtze River Power as the largest hydro power plant in China is very optimistic. 5. Whether Gezhouba’s electricity price increases still has great uncertainty. This is an uncertain factor for the future performance of the Yangtze Power. However,