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理论上,产业转移通过数量增长效应机制和质量增长效应机制共同作用于我国东部地区产业转型和中西部地区经济增长。但基于双期DID模型的实证分析表明:2005—2012年间,产业转出抑制了转出地的经济增长,但推动了转入地的经济增长,效应大小均与转移规模呈正比。2012年之后,产业转出推动了转出地的经济增长,对转入地的正向推动作用却逐渐减弱,作用大小与转移规模均呈反比。而且,现阶段我国制造业跨区域转移的贡献更多表现为数量增长效应。统计学意义上,产业转移对区域经济增长的推动作用并不显著。究其原因,在于产业转移通过产业集聚、技术溢出、要素流动和结构调整促进区域经济增长的作用机制尚未发挥,我国制造业在东部地区集聚发展的空间格局并没有改变。而且,政府兜底式的产业转移成本分担机制导致产业转移的不可持续和无根性,不利于转入产业与当地产业的耦合发展。
In theory, the industrial transfer through the mechanism of quantitative growth and the mechanism of mass growth effect jointly play an important role in the industrial restructuring in the eastern part of China and the economic growth in the central and western regions. However, the empirical analysis based on the double-phase DID model shows that during 2005-2012, the transfer of industries inhibits the economic growth in the transferred-out areas, but promotes the economic growth of the transferable places. The effect size is proportional to the size of the transfer. After 2012, the transfer of industries promoted the economic growth in the transfer-out areas. However, the positive effect on the transfer of land to other places gradually weakened, and the size of the transfer was inversely proportional to the scale of transfer. Moreover, at this stage, the contribution made by China’s manufacturing industry in trans-regional movements is more manifested in its quantitative growth effect. In the statistical sense, the promotion effect of industrial transfer on regional economic growth is not significant. The reason is that the mechanism of the role of industrial transfer in promoting regional economic growth through industrial agglomeration, technology spillover, factor flow and structural adjustment has not yet been brought into full play. The spatial pattern of the agglomeration and development of the manufacturing industry in the eastern region has not changed. Moreover, the government’s comprehensive industrial transfer cost-sharing mechanism leads to the unsustainable and radical nature of industrial transfer, which is not conducive to the coupled development of industries and local industries.