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新疆在推进工业化的进程中面临着巨大的节能减排压力。对与能耗相关的二氧化碳排放强度进行分解,研究其背后的驱动因素,能够为有的放矢地制订减排政策,发展低碳经济提供重要的实证依据。文章运用对数平均迪氏指数法方法,对新疆工业二氧化碳强度变动的分解结果表明:1994～2001年工业二氧化碳强度略有上升,其正向驱动因素是部门结构和行业结构,负向驱动因素是能耗强度和能耗结构;2002～2007年二氧化碳强度大幅增加的主要原因是能耗强度的上升,能耗结构、部门结构和行业结构虽有负向贡献但相对较小。此外,各工业行业的二氧化碳强度普遍呈上升趋势,主要资源型工业行业的规模扩张和技术滞后是新疆工业二氧化碳减排的重要制约因素。
Xinjiang is facing enormous pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction in the process of promoting industrialization. Decomposition of energy intensity related to the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions to study the drivers behind them can provide an important evidence for the targeted emission reduction policies and the development of low-carbon economy. The article uses the Logarithmic Mean Disraeli Index method to decompose the industrial CO2 intensity in Xinjiang. The results show that the industrial carbon dioxide intensity slightly increases from 1994 to 2001, and the positive driving factor is the department structure and the industrial structure. The negative driving factor is Energy intensity and energy consumption structure. The main reason for the substantial increase of carbon dioxide intensity in 2002-2007 is the increase in energy intensity, though the energy consumption structure, sectoral structure and industrial structure are relatively small but negatively contributed. In addition, the intensity of carbon dioxide in various industrial sectors generally shows an upward trend. The scale expansion and technological lag of major resource-based industrial sectors are important constraints on industrial carbon dioxide emission reduction in Xinjiang.