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为了检验天气发生器CLIGEN在华北地区生成降水的有效性,应用该区15个气象站1951-2008年的日气象观测资料和CLIGEN生成的150a日气象数据,对CLIGEN再现该区降水的效能进行了评估。结果表明:CLIGEN很好地再现了年和日降水量的均值和降水日数,但对降水极值的模拟精度不高,年和日最大降水量的平均相对偏差均大于均值的平均相对偏差。非参数检验的结果表明,CLIGEN能很好地生成年降水量的概率分布,且对日降水的概率分布也有较高的生成精度。总体来看,CLIGEN模型在华北地区能很好地再现年、日降水量平均值统计特征,并较好地再现了降水的变率。
In order to test the effectiveness of weather generator CLIGEN in generating precipitation in North China, the climatic performance of precipitation in this area was studied using meteorological observation data of 15 weather stations in the area from 1951 to 2008 and weather data of 150 days generated by CLIGEN Evaluation. The results show that CLIGEN reproduces well the annual mean precipitation and precipitation days well, but the simulation accuracy of precipitation extreme is not high, and the average relative deviation of annual and maximum precipitation is greater than the average relative deviation. The results of nonparametric tests show that CLIGEN can well generate the probability distribution of annual precipitation, and also have a higher precision of the probability distribution of daily precipitation. In general, the CLIGEN model can well reproduce the statistical features of average annual precipitation in North China, and reproduce the precipitation variability well.