论文部分内容阅读
为了研究气候波动和覆被变化对中小流域径流的影响,对BPCC分布式水文模型进行敏感参数分析。根据降雨、温度、和归一化植被指数NDVI的变化趋势计算3个影响因子单独和组合变化前后的径流深。对岷江镇江关流域1980—2003年间的计算结果表明:3种因子的综合影响使流域径流减少11.5%;各因子单独作用的贡献率分别为39.3%、45.4%和15.9%,一定变幅下的单位贡献率分别为9.4%、2.4%和12.2%;计算结果显示气候波动(气候因素)与覆被变化(人为因素)的贡献率之比约为5∶1。
In order to study the influence of climate fluctuation and cover change on runoff in small and medium-sized watersheds, the sensitive parameters of BPCC distributed hydrological model were analyzed. The runoff depth before and after the change of the three influencing factors separately and in combination was calculated based on the trend of rainfall, temperature and NDVI. The results of the calculation of the Minjiang River basin from 1980 to 2003 show that the combined effect of the three factors reduces the runoff of the watershed by 11.5% and the contribution rates of the individual factors are 39.3%, 45.4% and 15.9% respectively. Under a certain amplitude The contribution rates of units are 9.4%, 2.4% and 12.2% respectively. The calculation results show that the ratio of climate fluctuation (climate factor) to cover change (human factor) is about 5: 1.