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综合安全评估(FSA,Formal Safety Assessment)是专门针对船舶的安全管理方法,其特点是不但对风险进行评估,而且利用成本效益分析(CEA,Cost Effectiveness Analysis)对风险控制方案进行选择决策。为提高FSA方案决策的合理性,将效用理论应用于FSA的CEA分析。具体来说,首先利用损失效用函数定义某类事故风险的效用,用以表达决策者对该风险的厌恶程度。同时,利用期望效用公式,将船舶系统各类事故风险的效用综合为一个总效用值,称为综合风险效用模型。利用该模型提出基于效用的CEA方法,即在选择风险控制方案时,将CEA中的风险减小量代换为与之效用相等的确定性效益值,使方案决策能考虑决策者主观态度的影响。最后,在LNG船的FSA案例中使用了新方法,并与传统方法的结果进行对比,进一步证明了新方法的合理性与必要性。
Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) is a ship safety management approach that not only evaluates risk but also makes cost-benefit analysis (CEA) decisions on risk control options. To improve the rationality of decision-making in FSA program, utility theory is applied to CEA analysis of FSA. Specifically, the utility of loss utility is first used to define the utility of a type of accident risk to express the degree of aversiveness of the risk-maker by the decision makers. At the same time, by using the expected utility formula, the utility of all types of accident risk of ship system is integrated into a total utility value, which is called the comprehensive risk utility model. The utility-based CEA method is proposed by using this model. That is, when choosing the risk control scheme, the risk reduction in CEA is replaced by the deterministic benefit equal to its utility, so that the decision of the scheme can consider the influence of the subjective attitude of the decision maker . Finally, the new method was used in the FSA case of LNG carriers, and compared with the results of the traditional method, which further proved the rationality and necessity of the new method.