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选择崔-王指数、变异系数评估经济极化程度,并结合GIS空间分异和空间自相关分析,对天山南坡经济带经济极化时空演变进行了分析。结果表明:(1)天山南坡经济带的经济极化呈现不断增强的趋势。(2)1990年以来,极化现象明显,但是经济总量的极化现象大于人均经济总量。(3)人均GDP和GDP的Moran’s I具有相反的变化趋势,人均GDP总体上呈增大趋势,经济空间集聚程度亦呈增大态势,GDP趋于随机分布。(4)通过局域空间自相关分析得知,GDP和人均GDP“低低”集聚的地区主要集中在阿克苏地区,经济发展的热点区主要集中在以库尔勒市为中心的轮台县、焉耆县和和静县且这种格局2000年以来基本上保持不变。
Choosing the index of Cui-Wang and the coefficient of variation to evaluate the degree of economic polarization, and combining the spatial heterogeneity of GIS and the spatial autocorrelation analysis, the temporal and spatial evolution of economic polarization in the economic belt on the southern slope of Tianshan Mountains were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The economic polarization in the economic belt on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains shows an increasing trend. (2) Since 1990, the phenomenon of polarization has been obvious, but the polarization of the total economy has exceeded the total per capita economy. (3) Moran’s I, per capita GDP and GDP, have the opposite trend of change. Per capita GDP generally shows an upward trend, and the spatial agglomeration of economy also shows an upward trend. GDP tends to be randomly distributed. (4) According to the analysis of local spatial autocorrelation, the areas where GDP and GDP per capita GDP are “low” are mainly concentrated in Aksu region. The hot spots of economic development are mainly concentrated in Ruthen county with Korla city as the center, Yanqi County and Hejing County and this pattern has remained basically unchanged since 2000.