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产量分解是农作物产量预报业务的关键技术环节。针对业务上基于二项式简化模型产量的分解误差可能较大,研究影响模拟误差的气候因素和社会因素,建立基于完整模型的农作物产量分解技术方法,重点包括气候异常模拟误差△Yw和社会因素模拟误差△Y t的订正、不同农作物产量分解方法的组合使用等,结合计算机技术实现数据处理自动化,有利于提高农作物产量气候影响评估和预报精确性和准确率,产生较好的服务效果。
Yield decomposition is the key technology of crop yield forecasting business. According to the binomial simplification model, the decomposition error of the output based on the binomial model may be larger. The climatic and social factors that affect the simulation error are researched. Based on the complete model, the method of crop yield decomposition is established. The emphasis is on the ΔYw and the social factors The correction of simulation error △ Y t, the combination of different crop yield decomposition methods and so on, and the combination of computer technology to automate data processing are beneficial to improve the accuracy and accuracy of climate impact assessment and forecast of crop yield and produce better service results.