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近年来,江苏省南通市水质性缺水和季节性缺水问题严重制约了社会经济的发展。为实现可持续发展,利用2015、2020、2030规划年南通市用水和供水系统的水量数据,分析了水资源供需平衡,建立了水资源承载力模型,并以总人口数为目标函数,求解最优化目标。最后通过情景模拟,探讨了不同组合(水量、水质、供水季节)、不同阶段的水资源承载力。结果表明,未来南通市水资源将出现超载情况,2015年可能出现水质性缺水问题;2020年水质问题有所改善,季节性缺水逐渐出现;2030年季节性缺水问题凸显。
In recent years, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, water quality and seasonal water shortage seriously hampered the social and economic development. In order to achieve sustainable development, the water supply and demand of Nantong City in 2015, 2020 and 2030 planning years are used to analyze the water supply and demand balance. The water resources carrying capacity model is established. Taking the total population as the objective function, optimize the target. Finally, through scenario simulation, the water resources carrying capacity of different combinations (water quantity, water quality and water supply season) and different stages were discussed. The results show that in the future Nantong will be overloaded with water resources, with water-quality and water shortage likely to occur in 2015, water quality problems will be improved in 2020, seasonal water shortage will gradually emerge, and seasonal water shortage in 2030 will be highlighted.