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以锡林郭勒盟牧户调研数据为基础,运用Probit模型分析草原流转的驱动因素。研究结果表明:比较利益差异是草原流转主导因素和根本动力,牧户禀赋是草原流转原始驱动力,而外部政策是影响草原流转的加速器。牧户通过比较非牧就业收入与草原畜牧业经营收入、家庭劳动力生产所需草原与家庭现有草原规模以及草原流转的边际收益和边际成本,确定是否进行流转。加入合作社与获得贷款对草原转入的边际效应较大,牧户承包草原面积也是其影响因素。对于转出牧户而言,非牧就业的影响程度较大,获得贷款、投保养老保险、草原生态补助奖励资金、家庭人口数也对其影响显著。
Based on the survey data of herd households in Xilin Gol League, Probit model was used to analyze the driving factors of grassland circulation. The results show that: comparing the difference of interests is the dominant factor and the fundamental driving force of grassland circulation, and the herding natural endowment is the primitive driving force of grassland circulation, while the external policy is the accelerator that affects the grassland circulation. The herdsmen determine whether to proceed with the transfer by comparing the income from non-livestock employment with the income from the management of livestock husbandry in the grassland, the size of the grasslands and families required for the production of family labor, and the marginal revenue and marginal cost of the grassland transfer. The marginal effect of joining co-operatives and getting loans on grassland conversion is large, and the area of grassland contracted by pastoral herdsmen is also the influencing factor. For the transfer of herdsmen, the impact of non-livestock employment is relatively large. Loans, insurance for old-age pension insurance, prairie ecological subsidies, and the number of family members are also significantly affected.