利用中国小麦生态实验资料建立了黄淮海地区冬小麦发育阶段模式和光合作用、呼吸作用等模式，由这些子模式连结成为一个可以模拟瞬时光合作用的，充分考虑了叶片空间分布特征的冬小麦光合生产潜力模式。运用该模式研究结果证明冬小麦光合生产潜力与抽穗前１０天至成熟期辐射量相关性最大。黄淮海地区冬小麦光合生产潜力可达到８００ｋｇ／亩～１０００ｋｇ／亩，与牛文元计算结果相近。功率谱分析结果表明北京地区光合生产潜力存在３年～４年和９年～１０年的变化周期。此外，文中还给出了ＣＯ２升高后冬小麦光合生产潜力的可能变化情况。 Based on the Chinese wheat ecological experiment data, the patterns of photosynthesis and respiration during winter wheat development in Huang-Huai-Hai region were established. These sub-models were linked into a photosynthetic potential that could simulate transient photosynthesis and took into account the spatial distribution of leaves mode. The results of this model showed that the photosynthetic potential of winter wheat had the highest correlation with the amount of radiation from 10 days before heading to maturity. The potential of winter wheat photosynthesis in the Huang-Huai-Hai region can reach 800kg / mu ~ 1000kg / mu, which is similar to that of Niu Wenyuan. The results of power spectrum analysis showed that the potential of photosynthetic production in Beijing existed between 3 years and 4 years and 9 years to 10 years. In addition, the paper also gives the potential changes of photosynthetic potential of winter wheat after CO2 increase.