由于决定经济下行的长期因素并没有发生根本改变,中国的经济下行趋势就不会结束。目前的经济反弹,更多的是反映着政府增加投资和贷款供给的效果。如果没有推进城市化和调整分配关系的根本措施出台,中国经济触底反弹时刻就不可能到来,我说经济下行会在2013年下半年结束,也是基于那个时候会发生大的改革与调整。 Since no fundamental change has taken place in the long-term factors that determine the economic downturn, the downward trend in China’s economy will not end. The current economic rally is more about the government’s effect of increasing investment and loan supply. Without the introduction of fundamental measures to promote urbanization and the adjustment of distribution, it is impossible for the Chinese economy to bottom out. I said that the economic downturn will end in the second half of 2013, and that there will be major reforms and adjustments at that time.