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针对电源规划过程中的各种可行方案,因其方案的寿命期及投产年限的不相同,在规划年末它们将可能具有不同的剩余使用年限,为了便于比较,运用净年值法对各种可行方案进行经济性评价。在收益估算中考虑了不同的融资结构对方案的比选所产生的影响,并考虑了资金的融资成本,以及不同的融资方式对方案经济性的影响,同时引入了机会成本,特别是对自有资金来讲,如若不考虑其机会成本必然使得对方案的收益估计偏大,这与实际情况不符,易导致过度投资。结合决策者对待风险的不同偏好态度,构造了效用函数,确定效用曲线,并以期望效用最大作为最终的决策依据。为进一步减小决策失误和更加有效的规避风险,还可以测得多人的效用值后进行加权平均。最后通过算例证实这一算法的可行性。
Due to the different life span and years of operation of the programs, all kinds of feasible solutions in the process of power supply planning may have different remaining useful lives at the end of the planning year. For the sake of comparison, various feasible methods Program for economic evaluation. In the income estimation, the impact of different financing structures on the comparison and selection of programs has been considered, and the financing cost of funds and the impact of different financing methods on the program economy have been taken into consideration. At the same time, the opportunity cost has been introduced, With funds, if you do not consider the opportunity cost will inevitably make the program estimates of income is too large, which is not in line with the actual situation, easily lead to over-investment. According to the preferences of decision-makers in treating risk, a utility function is constructed to determine the utility curve, and the maximum expected utility is taken as the final decision-making basis. To further reduce the mistakes in decision-making and to more effectively avoid the risk, we can also measure the utility value of many people and carry out the weighted average. Finally, an example is given to verify the feasibility of this algorithm.