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本文以“世纪结核病流行曲线”对结核病流行的自然趋势进行了估价。当前全球结核病流行总趋势大致处于下降阶段,但各国所处的下降程度的位置是不同的。有效的结核病控制措施,特别是合理的化学疗法,能明显地加快自然下降趋势的下降速度。同时介绍了以荷兰为代表的工业发达国家结核病疫情的一些特点及发达国家消灭结核病前景,由于各年龄组的旧感染所造成的内源性复发及从各结核感染国家和地区的移民影响,工业发达国家消灭结核病仍需相当长的时间。以Styblo提出的总人口结核感染率低于1％或Horne提出的每百万人口每年发生的排菌病人少于一名的标准来估算,在荷兰尚需40～50年才能达到此标准。此外,还介绍了Styblo从流行病学角度研究内源复发及外源再感染的方法。本刊邀请作者就国际上结核病流行趋势及结核病控制方法的进展方面做一系统介绍,并先后分两部分发表。其中第一部分为“印度结核病流行及控制情况”一文,已发表于1987年第2期,本期陆续发表第二部分“结核病流行病学及其控制的一些研究进展。
This paper evaluates the natural tendency of the epidemic of tuberculosis based on the “century curve of tuberculosis epidemic.” At present, the general trend of the global tuberculosis epidemic is generally at a declining stage, but the position of decline in each country is different. Effective tuberculosis control measures, especially rational chemotherapy, can significantly accelerate the rate of decline of natural declines. At the same time, some characteristics of the tuberculosis epidemic in industrially developed countries, including the Netherlands, as well as the prospect of eliminating tuberculosis in developed countries, the endogenous recurrence caused by the old infections of all age groups and the immigration from the tuberculosis infected countries and regions, It will take a long time before the developed countries eliminate tuberculosis. It is estimated that less than 1% of the total population will be infected by Styblo or less than one per year, according to Horne’s standard of rowing per million people per million inhabitants. It will take 40 to 50 years for the Netherlands to reach this standard. In addition, Styblo introduced an epidemiological study of endogenous recurrence and exogenous reinfection. This journal invites the author to make a systematic introduction on the international tuberculosis epidemic trend and the progress of tuberculosis control methods, and has published it in two parts. The first part of this article is “The Epidemic and Control of Tuberculosis in India”, which was published in the second issue of 1987. The second part of this issue is published in this issue, “Some Progress in Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Its Control.”