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为解决瓦斯抽采量的预测问题,针对瓦斯抽采量随时间的变化波动性较大的特点,用曲线回归和傅里叶级数组合方法,建立关于瓦斯抽采量的预测模型。首先采用基于最小二乘原理的曲线回归研究瓦斯抽采量总体趋势,得到回归方程。将瓦斯抽采量观测值与曲线回归结果相减,可得瓦斯抽采量各实测值在回归曲线上的波动值。采用Fourier级数分析该波动规律,得到其Fourier级数方程,将回归方程与Fourier级数方程相加即可完成预测模型的建立。研究结果表明,将此模型应用到某矿瓦斯抽采量预测分析中,预测结果精确度可达到98.39%。
In order to solve the problem of gas drainage volume prediction, aiming at the characteristics that the gas drainage volume fluctuates with time greatly, curve prediction and Fourier series combination method are used to establish the prediction model of gas drainage volume. First, the regression analysis based on the least squares method is used to study the general trend of gas drainage volume and the regression equation is obtained. Subtracting the gas extraction volume from the curve regression results, we can get the fluctuation value of each measured value of gas drainage on the regression curve. Fourier series analysis of the law of fluctuations to obtain the Fourier series equation, the regression equation and the Fourier series equation can be added to complete the prediction model. The results show that the model can be applied to the prediction and analysis of the gas drainage volume of a mine, and the prediction accuracy can reach 98.39%.