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本文使用1980～2008年的省级数据,采用一阶差分面板广义矩方法对我国货币传导机制中的信贷渠道的影响和因果关系进行检验,发现银行贷款对产出存在统计上显著的正面影响,但是影响程度较小。而国有企业的相对低效减弱了工商业贷款对产出的影响,在对子样本期的检验中,我们发现随着20世纪90年代以后国内金融一体化程度的提高和资金跨省流动的加剧,省级层面银行贷款对产出的影响无论从统计上,还是经济意义上影响都不显著,但中国的地区金融差异仍比较明显。而采用货币需求冲击对银行贷款供给的检验也证实我们的结论。
This paper uses provincial data from 1980 to 2008 and tests the influence and causality of the credit channel in China’s monetary transmission mechanism by using the first-order differential panel GMM method. It finds that bank loans have a statistically significant positive impact on output, But less affected. However, the relative inefficiency of state-owned enterprises weakened the impact of industrial and commercial loans on output. In testing the sub-sample period, we found that with the increase of domestic financial integration and the increase of inter-provincial capital flow after the 1990s, The impact of provincial-level bank loans on output has no significant effect either in terms of statistics or in the economic sense, but the regional financial differences in China are still quite obvious. The test of bank loan supply using the impact of money demand also confirms our conclusion.