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2001~2014年,中国海洋经济增长迅速,产业结构呈现“高级化”状态且保持稳定,涉海就业人员数量不断增长并保持较高人均产值。本文为了研究海洋经济增长、产业结构变动和涉海就业之间的关系,利用向量自回归(VAR)模型将三者纳入同一框架进行分析。通过VAR(2)环境下的格兰杰因果关系检验、IRF脉冲响应函数、方差分解等工具分析三者之间的关系,得到海洋经济增长和涉海就业人员数量是引起海洋经济产业结构变化的格兰杰原因。针对分析结果提出提升海洋经济发展质量,推动海洋新兴产业发展,促进涉海就业人才自由流动等建议。
From 2001 to 2014, China’s marine economy grew rapidly, the industrial structure showed “advanced status” and remained stable. The number of seafarers employed in the sea continued to grow and maintained a high per capita output value. In order to study the relationship between marine economic growth, industrial structure change and maritime employment, this paper uses the vector auto regression (VAR) model to integrate the three into the same framework for analysis. Through the Granger causality test, IRF impulse response function and variance decomposition in VAR (2) environment, the relationship between the three is analyzed to find that the number of marine economic growth and the number of people involved in the sea is caused by changes in the industrial structure of the marine economy Granger reason. According to the results of the analysis, it is proposed to enhance the quality of marine economic development, promote the development of new marine industries, and promote the free movement of employed personnel in the sea.