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运用机动车燃料消耗的碳排放直接测算方法,对京津冀区域2005-2014年公路客运交通碳排放进行了测算和时空分析;并借助LEAP模型,设定了基准增长、比例控制和总量控制三种调控情景,对区域未来的公路客运交通碳排放进行了预测和调控设想。结果表明:(1)从时间演变来看,虽然单位乘客碳排放强度大大降低,但区域总体公路客运交通碳排放绝对量却在稳步快速增长,区域碳减排压力持续增加;(2)从空间分异来看,京津二市碳排放一直处于领先地位,但河北11市碳排放的稳步提升也使河北省碳排放在京津冀区域中的比重大大抬升;(3)预测发现总量控制情景较比例控制情景有更大碳减排幅度,但两种控制情景的区域碳排放总量至2030年都会保持增长态势,因此区域公路客运交通的调控需要科学设计并加大力度。本研究可为区域交通管治政策制定和碳减排提供参考。
Using the direct method to calculate the carbon emissions from fuel consumption of motor vehicles, the paper calculates and analyzes the road transport carbon emissions from 2005 to 2014 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on the LEAP model, the baseline growth, proportional control and total quantity control Three kinds of regulation and control scenarios, the future of the region’s road transport of carbon emissions forecasting and regulation. The results show that: (1) From the perspective of time evolution, although the intensity of carbon emission per passenger is greatly reduced, the absolute amount of carbon emissions from passenger traffic on the road is steadily increasing rapidly and the pressure on regional carbon emissions continues to increase; (2) In terms of differentiation, the carbon emission in Beijing and Tianjin is always at the leading position. However, the steady increase of carbon emissions in 11 cities in Hebei also greatly increased the proportion of Hebei’s carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (3) Scenarios have greater carbon reduction than the proportional control scenario. However, the total regional carbon emissions of the two control scenarios will maintain their growth momentum by 2030. Therefore, the regulation and control of regional highway passenger traffic needs to be scientifically designed and intensified. This study can provide reference for the formulation of regional traffic control policies and carbon emission reduction.