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本文首先探讨了“中等收入陷阱”定义本身存在的不严谨之处以及公众对该定义认知上的偏差,进而说明“中等收入陷阱”情结实质上反映的是对我国经济结构和体制改革的前景缺乏信心;为了说明我国经济发展的前景,本文分别从供给侧和需求侧的角度建立宏观总量生产函数模型和宏观总量需求模型检验了改革开放三十多年来影响我国经济增长的主要因素,在此基础上预估了我国未来十到十五年的增长潜力。结果表明,经济体制和经济增长方式改革使我国的经济结构更加成熟与合理,经济发展更加平稳,按照通行的判断跨越“中等收入陷阱”的标准,我国将在未来8到15年里进入发达国家行列。
This paper first explores the imprecision of the definition of “middle-income trap” itself and the public’s deviation from the definition. This shows that the “middle income trap” complex essentially reflects the economic structure and In order to illustrate the prospects of China’s economic development, this paper respectively establishes macro-aggregate production function model and macro-total demand model from the perspective of supply side and demand side to examine the impact of China’s economy over the past 30 years of reform and opening up On the basis of which we have estimated the growth potential of our country in the next ten to fifteen years. The results show that the reform of the economic system and the mode of economic growth have made our country’s economic structure more mature and reasonable and its economy developed steadily. In accordance with prevailing judgment, it will cross the standard of “middle-income trap” and China will enter the next eight to 15 years The ranks of developed countries.