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该文研发了基于CREST V2.1分布式水文模型的暴雨致洪预报系统,应用中国气象局降水业务产品,开展全国0.125°×0.125°的逐日洪水预报和区域30″×30″的逐时洪水预报。其中,全国洪水预报以松花江、辽河、海河、黄河、淮河、长江、东南诸河、珠江、西南诸河和西北诸河十大水资源分区的典型流域为研究对象,区域洪水预报以淮河流域为研究对象。以模拟和观测流量之间的效率系数为目标函数,采用SCE-UA方法分别对全国和区域洪水预报模型的参数分流域进行率定。评估参数率定前后模型对效率系数、相关系数和相对偏差的改进程度,并对参数率定后的模型进行检验。结果表明:率定后的模型能够重现控制水文站的实测洪水过程,与率定前相比,效率系数和相对偏差有显著改进,相关系数有较大改进。系统符合业务需求,具有较好的预报精度和时效性,具备业务应用能力。
In this paper, a rainstorm flood forecasting system based on CREST V2.1 distributed hydrological model was developed. By applying the precipitation business products of China Meteorological Administration, the daily flood forecast of 0.125 ° × 0.125 ° and the floodwater of 30 ° × 30 ° in the region forecast. Among them, the national flood forecasting takes the typical basins of the Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, Yangtze River, southeastern rivers, Pearl River, southwest rivers and northwest rivers as the research object. The regional flood forecasting takes the Huaihe River Basin as Research object Taking the efficiency coefficient between simulated and observed flow as objective function, the SCE-UA method was used to calibrate the parameterized watershed of national and regional flood forecast models respectively. Assess the improvement of the efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient and relative deviation before and after the parameter rate determination, and test the model after the parameter rate determination. The results show that the calibrated model can reproduce the measured flood process of hydrological station. Compared with the pre-calibration, the efficiency coefficient and relative deviation are significantly improved, and the correlation coefficient is greatly improved. System meets business needs, with good forecast accuracy and timeliness, with business applications.