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根据高温、高含冰量、高油温等冻土区埋地管道热融灾害易发性条件,选取自然环境、冻土特征、管道扰动3个方面10个指标,建立了冻土区输油管线热融灾害评价指标体系。基于漠大线364km处研究区域水文、冻土工程地质的复杂性和指标评价等级界线的模糊性,采用模糊互补判断矩阵排序原理确定指标权重,应用模糊综合评判法建立模型,并对该研究区域管线热融灾害进行了评价。结果表明,研究区域内管线诱发热融病害的主导因素为:年平均油温、冻土含冰量、年平均地温,且其潜在风险处于较差等级,其中,自然环境因子、冻土特征因子、管道扰动因子潜在风险皆处于较差等级,这与管道全年正温运行、地表扰动、热融沟积水下渗等引起管-土融化圈逐年扩大的病害问题相符。依不同病害区显著特征修正部分评价指标后,该模型可以推广应用到漠大线管线病害综合评价中。
According to the conditions of high temperature, high ice content, high oil temperature and other prone conditions of hot pipeline disaster in the permafrost zone, 10 indexes of natural environment, permafrost characteristics and pipeline disturbance were selected to establish the hotline Disaster evaluation index system. Based on the complexity of hydrology and frozen soil engineering geology and the fuzziness of the boundary of indicator evaluation grade at the 364km desert line, the weighting of indicators was determined by the fuzzy complementary judgment matrix sorting principle. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to establish the model. Pipeline thermal disaster was evaluated. The results show that the dominant factors of pipeline-induced hot melt diseases in the study area are annual average oil temperature, ice content in frozen soil and annual average ground temperature, and the potential risks are at a poor level. Among them, natural environment factors, frozen soil characteristic factors , And the potential risks of pipeline disturbance factors are all at a poor level. This is in line with the problem of the year-on-year expansion of pipe-soil melting circles due to the positive temperature operation throughout the year, surface disturbances and water seepage through thermal ditch. According to the significant features of different disease areas to amend some of the evaluation index, the model can be applied to promote the comprehensive evaluation of the disease line.