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本文运用全国与丝绸之路经济带沿线9省区市2003~2014年的面板数据,通过建立空间计量模型,分析了投资结构对产业结构变动的空间效应。结果表明:(1)区域产业结构的变动存在显著的空间依赖性;(2)与全国比较,丝绸之路经济带投资结构对产业结构的调整具有显著的促进作用。非公共基础设施投资对产业结构合理化、高级化的积极作用最大,尤其是对西北地区产业结构合理化,西南地区高级化的作用较大,而对全国呈现出消极效应;(3)硬性基础设施投资对西北地区产业结构合理化和高级化的积极作用最明显,而软性基础设施投资对西南地区产业高级化的贡献较大。表明调整丝绸之路经济带投资结构能够提高本地和相邻地区产业结构的优化升级。
In this paper, the panel data of 9 provinces and cities along the Silk Road Economic Belt in 2003 ~ 2014 are used to analyze the spatial effect of investment structure on industrial structure changes by establishing a spatial econometric model. The results show that: (1) there is a significant spatial dependence on the changes of regional industrial structure; (2) Compared with the whole country, the investment structure of Silk Road Economic Belt has a significant promotion effect on the industrial structure. Non-public infrastructure investment has the most positive effect on the rationalization and advancement of industrial structure, especially on the rationalization of industrial structure in Northwest China and the advancement of southwest China, but on the whole country. (3) The investment in hard infrastructure The positive role of rationalization and advancement of industrial structure in Northwest China is the most obvious, while the investment in soft infrastructure contributes more to the advancement of industries in Southwest China. This shows that the adjustment of the investment structure of the Silk Road Economic Belt can enhance the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in local and neighboring areas.